The potential clinical impact of implementing different COVID-19 boosters in fall 2022 in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Emerging SARS-COV-2 variants are spurring the development of adapted vaccines as public health authorities plan for fall vaccinations. This study estimated the number of infections and hospitalizations prevented by three potential booster strategies for adults (≥18 years) in the United States: boosting with either Moderna's (1) licensed first generation monovalent vaccine mRNA-1273 (ancestral strain) or (2) candidate bivalent vaccine mRNA-1273.214 (ancestral + BA.1 variant of concern [VOC]) starting in September 2022, or (3) Moderna's updated candidate bivalent vaccine mRNA-1273.222 (ancestral + BA.4/5 VOC) starting November 2022 due to longer development time. METHODS: An age-stratified, transmission dynamic, Susceptible-Exposed-Infection-Recovered (SEIR) model, adapted from previous literature, was used to estimate infections over time; the model contains compartments defined by SEIR and vaccination status. A decision tree was used to estimate clinical consequences of infections. Calibration was performed so the model tracks the actual course of the pandemic to present time. RESULTS: Vaccinating with mRNA-1273(Sept), mRNA-1273.214(Sept), and mRNA-1273.222(Nov) is predicted to reduce infections by 34%, 40%, and 18%, respectively, and hospitalizations by 42%, 48%, and 25%, respectively, over 6 months compared to no booster. Sensitivity analyses around transmissibility, vaccine coverage, masking, and waning illustrate that boosting with mRNA-1273.214 in September prevented more cases of infection and hospitalization than the other vaccines. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: With the emergence of new variants, key characteristics of the virus that affect estimates of spread and clinical impact also evolve, making parameter estimation difficult. Our analysis demonstrated that boosting with mRNA-1273.214 was more effective over 6 months in preventing infections and hospitalizations with a BA.4/5 subvariant than the tailored vaccine, simply because it could be deployed 2 months earlier. We conclude that there is no advantage to delay boosting until a more effective BA.4/5 vaccine is available; earlier boosting with mRNA-1273.214 will prevent the most infections and hospitalizations.

Clinical and economic benefits of lenzilumab plus standard of care compared with standard of care alone for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States from the hospital perspective.

AIMS: Estimate the clinical and economic benefits of lenzilumab plus standard of care (SOC) compared with SOC alone in the treatment of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia from the United States (US) hospital perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A per-patient cost calculator was developed to report the clinical and economic benefits associated with adding lenzilumab to SOC in newly hospitalized COVID-19 patients over 28 days. Clinical inputs were based on the LIVE-AIR trial, including failure to achieve survival without ventilation (SWOV), mortality, time to recovery, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) use. Base case costs included the anticipated list price of lenzilumab, drug administration, and hospital resource costs based on the level of care required. A scenario analysis examined projected one-year rehospitalization costs. RESULTS: In the base case and all scenarios, lenzilumab plus SOC improved all specified clinical outcomes relative to SOC alone. Lenzilumab plus SOC resulted in estimated cost savings of $3,190 per patient in a population aged <85 years with C-reactive protein (CRP) levels <150 mg/L and receiving remdesivir (base case). Per-patient cost savings were observed in the following scenarios: (1) aged <85 years with CRP <150 mg/L, with or without remdesivir ($1,858); (2) Black and African American patients with CRP <150 mg/L ($13,154); and (3) Black and African American patients from the full population, regardless of CRP level ($2,763). In the full modified intent-to-treat population, an additional cost of $4,952 per patient was estimated. When adding rehospitalization costs to the index hospitalization, a total per-patient cost savings of $5,154 was estimated. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the clinical benefits for SWOV, ventilator use, time to recovery, mortality, time in ICU, and time on IMV, in addition to an economic benefit from the US hospital perspective associated with adding lenzilumab to SOC for COVID-19 patients.